Maize migration mitigates the negative impact of climate change on China’s maize yield

Abstract

Abstract Crop migration as an adaptation to modulate climate change’s impact on crop yields presents both benefits and risks. We explored how maize migration in China modulates yield responses to climate change and quantified the potential economic benefits of maize migration as an adaptation strategy. We employed a panel data model to identify and measure the factors driving the relocation of maize area, linear regression to quantify the effects of maize migration on climate exposure and irrigated area, and an econometric model to estimate the effects of maize migration on yield. The results show that rise in temperature has a significant negative effect on maize area and that precipitation has a significant positive effect. The migration of maize area is driven by socio-economic factors including agricultural gross domestic product, power of farming machines, and fertilizer input. Moreover, expanded irrigation reduces the adverse effects of high temperatures on maize yield, thereby influencing adaptive crop migrations. The beneficial effects of maize migration are primarily achieved by reducing the adverse effects of extreme heat and strengthening the positive effects of irrigation. However, the extent of this adaptation is jointly affected by agricultural policies, irrigation infrastructure, and economic factors. Current market-oriented agricultural policies may be effective in guiding spatial shifts in maize distribution to align with climate-driven changes, potentially decreasing the vulnerability of China’s maize yield to the impact of climate change. China’s food security policies need to consider climate-driven spatial shifts in crop cultivation and enhance food subsidy policies to highlight the benefits of investment in climate change adaptation, such as adjusting cropping acreage and irrigation to farmers in North China.