Why Have College Completion Rates Declined? An Analysis of Changing Student Preparation and Collegiate Resources

Author:

Bound John1,Lovenheim Michael F2,Turner Sarah3

Affiliation:

1. University of Michigan Department of Economics, 611 Tappan Street, 318 Lorch Hall, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1220 and National Bureau of Economic Research.

2. Cornell University Department of Policy Analysis and Management, 103 Martha Van Rensselaer Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853.

3. University of Virginia Department of Economics, Monroe Hall, McCormick Road, Charlottesville, VA 22904 and National Bureau of Economic Research.

Abstract

Rising college enrollment over the last quarter century has not been met with a proportional increase in college completion. Comparing the high school classes of 1972 and 1992, we show declines in college completion rates have been most pronounced for men who first enroll in less selective public universities and community colleges. We decompose the decline into the components due to changes in preparedness of entering students and due to changes in collegiate characteristics, including type of institution and resources per student. While both factors play some role, the supply-side characteristics are most important in explaining changes in college completion. (JEL I23)

Publisher

American Economic Association

Subject

General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

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