Clinical trajectory of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms progressing to pancreatic carcinomas during long-term surveillance: a prospective series of 100 carcinoma cases

Abstract

Abstract Background Trajectories of serological and morphological signatures have not been documented in pancreatic carcinogenesis related to intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). Methods Using a prospective cohort of 3437 IPMN patients, we identified 100 IPMN patients who developed pancreatic carcinomas during long-term surveillance. We examined serial changes of blood markers (carbohydrate antigen 19-9 [CA19-9], hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c], and pancreatic enzymes) and morphological features (worrisome features and high-risk stigmata) during the prediagnostic period of pancreatic carcinomas, overall and by carcinoma types (IPMN-derived vs. concomitant pancreatic carcinomas). Results CA19-9 elevation was observed in 39 patients and was associated with a metastatic stage. Compared to IPMN-derived carcinomas, concomitant carcinomas were more likely to represent CA19-9 elevation (60% vs. 30%, respectively; P = 0.005). HbA1c levels elevated only in 3 patients. Pancreatic enzyme elevation was observed in 18 patients with no differences in frequencies between the carcinoma types. All patients with elevated levels of blood markers had positive findings on cross-sectional imaging. High-risk stigmata or worrisome features were observed in all patients but one with concomitant carcinoma. The most common types of worrisome features were the main pancreatic duct dilatation and CA19-9 elevation in IPMN-derived and concomitant carcinomas, respectively. Compared to IPMN-derived carcinomas, concomitant carcinomas were less likely to harbor high-risk stigmata (16% vs. 86%, respectively; P < 0.001). Conclusions The usefulness of currently available blood biomarkers was limited in early detection of pancreatic carcinomas related to IPMNs. Morphological alterations were well correlated with long-term risk of IPMN-derived carcinomas, but not with that of concomitant carcinomas.