Older Age as a Worrisome Feature in Patients With Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms: A Long-Term Surveillance Study

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Aging has been implicated in the development of various cancer types. No study has specifically investigated age at intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) diagnosis in relation to the long-term risk of pancreatic carcinogenesis. METHODS: Within a prospective cohort of 4,104 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cysts, we identified 3,142 patients with IPMNs and examined an association of age at IPMN diagnosis with the incidence of pancreatic carcinoma. Using the multivariable competing-risks proportional hazards regression model, we estimated subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for pancreatic carcinoma incidence according to age at IPMN diagnosis. RESULTS: During 22,187 person-years of follow-up, we documented 130 patients diagnosed with pancreatic carcinoma (64 with IPMN-derived carcinoma and 66 with concomitant ductal adenocarcinoma). Older age at IPMN diagnosis was associated with a higher risk of pancreatic cancer incidence (P trend = 0.002). Compared with patients younger than 55 years, patients aged 55–64, 65–74, and ≥ 75 years had adjusted SHRs of 1.80 (95% CI, 0.75–4.32), 2.56 (95% CI, 1.10–5.98), and 3.31 (95% CI, 1.40–7.83), respectively. Patients aged 70 years and older had a numerically similar adjusted SHR compared with patients younger than 70 years with worrisome features defined by the international consensus guidelines (1.73 [95% CI, 1.01–2.97] and 1.66 [95% CI, 0.89–3.10], respectively). DISCUSSION: Older patients with IPMNs were at a higher risk of developing pancreatic carcinoma during surveillance. Surgically fit elderly patients may be good candidates for periodic surveillance aimed at a reduction of pancreatic cancer-related deaths.