Which droughts are becoming more frequent? A copula entropy analysis on the return period of droughts in Europe

Abstract

AbstractClimate change and global warming have increased the frequency of extreme events, particularly over the past decades. Changes in drought frequency are not yet understood, especially regarding which drought features are becoming more frequent (e.g., are longer or high-magnitude droughts becoming more frequent, or both?). In this study, we present a novel methodology to accurately and consistently estimate changes in return periods of different types of droughts. For this purpose, we implemented copula-entropy theory to assess drought frequencies and their changes. As an example of the application of the proposed method, we used data from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D), from which we selected 26 stations in Central Europe with over 100 years of data and low incidence of missing days ($$\le$$ ≤ 0.3%). The results of the new analysis indicate that there was a high variability in the frequency change patterns across Central Europe over the last century; however, most regions have experienced an increase in the frequency of medium-to-high intensity droughts. The use of the copula-entropy theory to assess drought frequency is a reliable method that allows systematic monitoring and easy updating of current knowledge, and is computationally efficient and statistically robust.