Convergent Bayesian global fits of 4D composite Higgs models

Abstract

Abstract Models in which the Higgs boson is a composite pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson offer attractive solutions to the Higgs mass naturalness problem. We consider three such models based on the minimal SO(5) → SO(4) symmetry breaking pattern, and perform convergent global fits on the models under a Bayesian framework in order to find the regions of their parameter spaces that best fit a wide range of constraints, including recent Higgs measurements. We use a novel technique to analyse the fine-tuning of the models, quantifying the tuning as the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the prior to the posterior probability on the parameter space. Each model is found to be able to satisfy all constraints at the 3σ level simultaneously. As a by-product of the fits, we analyse the collider phenomenology of our models in these viable regions. In two of the three models, we find that the gg → H → γγ cross section is less than ∼90% that predicted by the SM, which is already in slight tension with experiment and could potentially be ruled out in the future high-luminosity run of the LHC. In addition, the lightest fermions F arising from the new strong dynamics in these models are seen in general to lie above ∼1.1 TeV, with the F → tW+ and F → $$ \overline{b}{W}^{+} $$ b ¯ W + decays offering particularly promising channels for probing these models in future collider searches.