Assessment of Wind Energy based on Optimal Weibull Parameters Estimation using Bald Eagle Search Algorithm: Case Studies from Egypt

Abstract

AbstractAs the wind speed is intermittent and unpredictable, statistical distribution approaches have been used to describe wind dates. The Weibull distribution with two parameters is thought to be the most accurate way for modeling wind data. This study seeks wind energy assessment via searching for optimal parameter estimation of the Weibull distribution. For this target, several analytical and heuristic methods are investigated. The analytical methods such as maximum likelihood method, moment method, energy pattern factor method (EPFM), and empirical method (EM) are used to find these optimal parameters. Also, these parameters are obtained by four heuristic optimization algorithms called particle swarm, crow search, aquila optimizer, and bald eagle search optimizers. The simulation results of analytical and heuristics are assessed together to identify the best probability density function (PDF) of wind data. In addition, these competitive models are submitted to find the most appropriate model to represent wind energy production. In all methods, the error between actual and estimated wind energy density is computed as the target fitness function. The simulation tests are carried out based on per year real data that are collected from Zafaranah and Shark El-Ouinate sites in Egypt. Also, different indicators of fitness properties are assessed such as the root mean square error (RMSE), determination coefficient (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and wind production deviation (WPD). The simulation results declare that the proposed bald eagle search optimization algorithm offers greater accuracy than other analytical and heuristic algorithms in estimating the Weibull parameters. Besides, statistical analysis of the compared methods demonstrates the high stability of the BES algorithm. Moreover, the BES algorithm presents the fastest convergence compared to the others. Furthermore, different models are analyzed to deduce the nonlinear relationship between the wind output power and the regarding speed where the error of wind energy density between actual and estimated is greatly minimized using the cubic model at least values of statistical indicators.