The dynamical evolution of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings of the Arctic winters in the past decade 2011–2021

Abstract

AbstractIn this study, we analyse the dynamical evolution, and identify the major warming (MW) and minor warming events of the past 11 Arctic winters (2010/11–2020/21). During the period, MW is found in 4 winters and is in January for 2012/13, 2018/19 and 2020/21 and in February for 2017/18. A major final warming is observed in the year 2015/16. The most severe MW occurred in the 2012/13 winter, for which a rise in temperature of about 30 K is found at 60° N. The investigation of tropospheric wave forcings for the period reveals that the MW in 2012/13 and 2017/18 is forced by the combined activity of waves 1 and 2, whereas the MW in 2018/19 and 2020/21 is driven by wave 1. Studies have shown that the frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in the Arctic has been increasing since 1957/58, which is about 1.1 MWs/winter during 1998/99–2009/10. However, this frequency decreases to 0.36 MWs/winter in the period 2010/11–2020/21 and 0.74 MWs/winter in 1998/99–2020/21. An inverse relationship is observed between the period of occurrence of SSWs and total column ozone (TCO) in the Arctic for the past 11 winters (2010/11–2020/21). For instance, the temperature in the lower stratosphere in January, in which most warmings occur, shows a statistically significant high positive correlation (0.79) with the average TCO in January–March. Therefore, this study assists in understanding the relationship between inter-annual variability of ozone and the occurrence of SSWs.