Abstract
AbstractIn sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), precipitation is an important driver of agricultural production. In Uganda, maize production is essentially rain-fed. However, due to changes in climate, projected maize yield targets have not often been met as actual observed maize yields are often below simulated/projected yields. This outcome has often been attributed to parallel gaps in precipitation. This study aims at identifying maize yield and precipitation gaps in Uganda for the period 1998–2017. Time series historical actual observed maize yield data (hg/ha/year) for the period 1998–2017 were collected from FAOSTAT. Actual observed maize growing season precipitation data were also collected from the climate portal of World Bank Group for the period 1998–2017. The simulated or projected maize yield data and the simulated or projected growing season precipitation data were simulated using a simple linear regression approach. The actual maize yield and actual growing season precipitation data were now compared with the simulated maize yield data and simulated growing season precipitation to establish the yield gaps. The results show that three key periods of maize yield gaps were observed (period one: 1998, period two: 2004–2007 and period three: 2015–2017) with parallel precipitation gaps. However, in the entire series (1998–2017), the years 2008–2009 had no yield gaps yet, precipitation gaps were observed. This implies that precipitation is not the only driver of maize yields in Uganda. In fact, this is supported by a low correlation between precipitation gaps and maize yield gaps of about 6.3%. For a better understanding of cropping systems in SSA, other potential drivers of maize yield gaps in Uganda such as soils, farm inputs, crop pests and diseases, high yielding varieties, literacy, and poverty levels should be considered.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Physics and Astronomy,General Engineering,General Environmental Science,General Materials Science,General Chemical Engineering
Reference65 articles.
1. Asea G, Bigirwa G, Adipala E, Owera SAP, Pratt RC, Lipps PE (2002) Effect of Cercospora zeae-maydis infested maize residue on progress and spread of grey leaf spot of maize in central Uganda. Ann Appl Biol 140(2):177–185
2. Adger WN, Brooks N, Bentham G, Agnew M, Eriksen S (2004) New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in Technical Report, 7. Tyndall Centre for Climate Research, Norwich
3. Alkire S, Santos ME (2010) Acute multidimensional poverty: a new index for developing countries. OPHI Working Paper No. 38. Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, Oxford
4. Benson T, Chamberlin J, Rhinehart I (2005) An investigation of the spatial determinants of the local prevalence of poverty in rural Malawi. Food Policy 30(5–6):532–550
5. Bindraban PS, van der Velde M, Ye L, van den Berg M, Materechera S, Kiba DI, Tamene L, Ragnarsdóttir KV et al (2012) Assessing the impact of soil degradation on food production. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 4:1–11
Cited by
11 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献