Author:
Hota Ashish R.,Maitra Urmee,Elokda Ezzat,Bolognani Saverio
Abstract
AbstractWe present a dynamic population game model to capture the behavior of a large population of individuals in presence of an infectious disease or epidemic. Individuals can be in one of five possible infection states at any given time: susceptible, asymptomatic, symptomatic, recovered and unknowingly recovered, and choose whether to opt for vaccination, testing or social activity with a certain degree. We define the evolution of the proportion of agents in each epidemic state, and the notion of best response for agents that maximize long-run discounted expected reward as a function of the current state and policy. We further show the existence of a stationary Nash equilibrium and explore the transient evolution of the disease states and individual behavior under a class of evolutionary learning dynamics. Our results provide compelling insights into how individuals evaluate the trade-off among vaccination, testing and social activity under different parameter regimes, and the impact of different intervention strategies (such as restrictions on social activity) on vaccination and infection prevalence.
Funder
The Institute of Data Engineering, Analytics, and Science Foundation (IDEAS), Technology Innovation Hub (TIH) situated at Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata
Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Applied Mathematics,Computational Mathematics,Computational Theory and Mathematics,Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design,Computer Science Applications,Statistics and Probability,Economics and Econometrics
Reference51 articles.
1. Adlakha S, Johari R, Weintraub GY (2015) Equilibria of dynamic games with many players: existence, approximation, and market structure. J Econ Theory 156:269–316
2. Agrawal M, Kanitkar M, Vidyasagar M (2021) SUTRA: an approach to modelling pandemics with undetected (asymptomatic) patients, and applications to COVID-19. In: 2021 60th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC), pp 3531–3531
3. Alluri A (2021) India’s Covid vaccine shortage: the desperate wait gets longer. URL https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56912977. Accessed 11 June 2023
4. Altman E, Datar M, De Pellegrini F, Perlaza S, Menasché DS (2022) The mask game with multiple populations. Dyn Games Appl 12(1):147–167
5. Amini H, Minca A (2022) Epidemic spreading and equilibrium social distancing in heterogeneous networks. Dyn Games Appl 12(1):258–287
Cited by
4 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献