Role of data uncertainty when identifying important areas for biodiversity and carbon in boreal forests

Author:

Kujala HeiniORCID,Minunno Francesco,Junttila Virpi,Mikkonen Ninni,Mäkelä Annikki,Virkkala Raimo,Akujärvi Anu,Leikola Niko,Heikkinen Risto K.

Abstract

AbstractForest conservation plays a central role in meeting national and international biodiversity and climate targets. Biodiversity and carbon values within forests are often estimated with models, introducing uncertainty to decision making on which forest stands to protect. Here, we explore how uncertainties in forest variable estimates affect modelled biodiversity and carbon patterns, and how this in turn introduces variability in the selection of new protected areas. We find that both biodiversity and carbon patterns were sensitive to alterations in forest attributes. Uncertainty in features that were rare and/or had dissimilar distributions with other features introduced most variation to conservation plans. The most critical data uncertainty also depended on what fraction of the landscape was being protected. Forests of highest conservation value were more robust to data uncertainties than forests of lesser conservation value. Identifying critical sources of model uncertainty helps to effectively reduce errors in conservation decisions.

Funder

Finnish Strategic Research Council

Horizon 2020

Ympäristöministeriö

Maa- ja MetsätalousministeriÖ

University of Helsinki including Helsinki University Central Hospital

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Ecology,Environmental Chemistry,Geography, Planning and Development,General Medicine

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