How do short-term and long-term factors impact the aboveground biomass of grassland in Northern China?

Abstract

AbstractThe aboveground biomass (AGB) of grassland, a crucial indicator of productivity, is anticipated to widespread changes in key ecosystem attributes, functions and dynamics. Variations in grassland AGB have been extensively documented across various spatial and temporal scales. However, a precise method to disentangle long-term effects from short-term effects on grassland AGB and assess the attribution of explanatory factors for AGB change remains elusive. This study aimed to quantify the impact of key climatic factors, soil properties, and grazing intensity on grassland AGB changes, utilizing data spanning the 1980s and the 2000s in Northern China. The Co-regression model was explored to separate the long-term effects and short-term effects of grassland AGB, while the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) was utilized to analyze the contributions of key variables to AGB. This approach effectively avoids issues related to regression to the mean and mathematical coupling. The results revealed that the influence of climatic variables, soil texture and grazing intensity on grassland AGB changes could be decomposed into long-term, short-term and random effects. Long-term effects explained 73.6% of AGB variation, whereas short-term effect only accounted for 5.9% of AGB change. Additionally, the short-term effect was divided into direct and indirect effects, with the direct effect explaining 1.3% of AGB variation, and the indirect effect explained 4.6% of AGB dynamics. The relative importance of key variables in grassland AGB was assessed, identifying soil parameters and precipitation as the main driving factors in the study area. This study introduces a robust methodology to enhance model performance in distinguishing long-term and short-term effects on grassland AGB, contributing to the sustainable development of grassland ecology in similar regions.