Author:
Albrahim Mohammed,Zahrani Ahmed Al,Arora Anvita,Dua Rubal,Fattouh Bassam,Sieminski Adam
Abstract
Abstract
The light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector is undergoing many changes, including technological advancements (e.g., vehicle electrification, automation), new business models (e.g., ride-hailing), and government regulations and policies (e.g., fuel economy (FE) standards, zero-emission vehicle mandates, infrastructure investments, and incentives to encourage adoption of alternative fuel vehicles). Despite significant uncertainty, these developments, combined with demographic growth, will influence the future LDV fleet size and composition, and consequently the oil demand from LDVs. This paper provides a review of changes in the LDV sector and an assessment of their impact on oil demand. It takes into account the impact of LDV fleet growth, increasing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) and alternative fuels (focus on biofuels), and improvements in internal combustion engine vehicles’ (ICEV) FE. Our analysis indicates that oil demand in 2040 could remain unchanged relative to 2016, but depending on the development of certain trends, demand could shrink or increase by ~6 million barrels per day (±25% relative to 2016). Our findings suggest that ICEV FE improvements could have a much greater impact on oil demand than the emergence of EVs. Moreover, preliminary research indicates that automation and shared mobility could reinforce the economic attractiveness of EVs, thereby increasing their penetration and impact on oil demand. Because of uncertainties in the development of these two trends by 2040 and difficulties in quantifying the complex interactions, we have not captured these effects in our model. Therefore, the range of uncertainty on the oil demand evolution could be even higher than our model indicates.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference100 articles.
1. International Energy Agency: World Energy Outlook.
https://www.iea.org/weo2017/
(2017). Accessed Oct 2018
2. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: World Oil Outlook.
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/flipbook/WOO2017/WOO2017/assets/common/downloads/WOO%202017.pdf
(2017). Accessed Oct 2018
3. International Energy Agency: Energy technology perspectives.
http://www.acs-giz.si/resources/files/Energy_technology_perspectives.pdf
(2017). Accessed Oct 2018
4. International Transport Forum: ITF transport outlook.
https://www.ttm.nl/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/itf_study.pdf
(2017). Accessed Dec 2018
5. British Petroleum: BP Energy Outlook.
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook-2017/bp-energy-outlook-2017.pdf
(2017). Accessed Oct 2018
Cited by
7 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献