Northern Pacific extratropical cyclone variability and its linkage with Arctic sea ice changes

Abstract

AbstractExtratropical cyclones are critical weather systems affecting climate change in mid and high-latitude regions. Researching the characteristics, patterns, and movements of extratropical cyclones is helpful for improved prediction and understanding of global climate change. Currently, there are still great difficulties in predicting extratropical cyclones. Also, few prior studies have investigated the potential impact of Arctic sea ice on extratropical cyclone activity (ECA). This study utilizes updated ERA5 data and an improved ECA identification method to reveal ECA in the Pacific. The results demonstrate that the Pacific ECA primarily occurs during the cold season (November to March), and the North Pacific region has the maximum ECA. More remarkably, a strong linkage exists between the preceding summer-fall anomalous changes in the Arctic sea ice and the cold season Pacific ECA. We discover that Arctic sea ice could modify the local pressure field, changing the southern boundary of the Pacific sector polar vortex in winter, which in turn influences the intensity of the westerly jet stream and eventually impacts the Pacific ECA during the cold season. Our exploration will provide references for further study and prediction of ECA in the Pacific Ocean.