Abstract
AbstractTropical cyclones have resulted in casualties and economic losses in the areas surrounding the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Thus, a comprehensive investigation of these tropical cyclones holds vital implications for disaster preparedness and mitigation. This paper compares the occurrence of storms in the last two decades, i.e., 2002–2011 and 2012–2021, and results reveal that such storms exhibited predominantly a northwesterly track towards the northwestern BoB, with a severer intensity but equal total storm frequencies. Over the past decade, a southeast-northwest pathway (SNP) was identified, demonstrating a higher incidence of severe tropical cyclones (STC, with lifetime maximum intensity ≥ 64 knots) over the BoB. Further analysis of the changes in the environmental conditions between these two decades indicates that a southeasterly anomaly in the steering flow contributed to the formation of the SNP. During the same period, the more favorable oceanic conditions during the last decade, including higher sea surface temperatures, a greater upper ocean heat content, a thicker warm water layer, and a thicker barrier layer beneath the SNP, favored the development of these storms by providing more heat energy to the storms. The atmospheric conditions, including increased air-sea heat fluxes, moisture, and instability within the lower troposphere, as well as reduced vertical wind shear, facilitated the development of convection within these storm systems. These favorable conditions improved the potential for storm development into STCs and elevated the risk of the northwestern BoB being impacted by more destructive storms.
Funder
Youth Science Foundation Project of the East China Sea Bureau, Ministry of Natural Resources
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province
Basic Scientific Fund for National Public Research Institutes of China
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Cited by
1 articles.
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