Acute-to-Chronic Glycemic Ratio as a Predictor of COVID-19 Severity and Mortality

Abstract

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between acute-to-chronic (A/C) glycemic ratio and mortality and severity outcomes for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 91 patients were included. We measured glycemia at admission and estimated the average chronic glucose levels to calculate the A/C glycemic ratio. The primary outcome was a composite of in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit admission, and mechanical ventilation. RESULTS Thirty-five patients had a primary outcome event, presenting a significant association with the A/C glycemic ratio (hazard ratio [HR] 1.57 [95% CI 1.14–2.15], P = 0.005). In comparisons with the 2nd tertile, the 3rd tertile of the A/C glycemic ratio was associated with the primary outcome (HR 3.39 [95% CI 1.31–8.75], P = 0.012). In the multivariate analysis, after additional adjustment for age, sex, comorbidities, inflammatory markers, and corticosteroid therapy, the association for the 3rd tertile (HR 3.96 [95% CI 1.35–11.59], P = 0.012) remained significant. CONCLUSIONS In patients with T2D hospitalized with COVID-19, the imbalance between acute glycemia at admission and chronic metabolic control is associated with worse prognosis.