Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

Published:2020-07-10 Issue:6500 Volume:369 Page:208-211
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Salje Henrik¹²³^ORCID,Tran Kiem Cécile¹⁴^ORCID,Lefrancq Noémie¹,Courtejoie Noémie⁵^ORCID,Bosetti Paolo¹,Paireau Juliette¹⁶^ORCID,Andronico Alessio¹,Hozé Nathanaël¹,Richet Jehanne⁵^ORCID,Dubost Claire-Lise⁵,Le Strat Yann⁶^ORCID,Lessler Justin³^ORCID,Levy-Bruhl Daniel⁶,Fontanet Arnaud⁷⁸,Opatowski Lulla⁹¹⁰,Boelle Pierre-Yves¹¹^ORCID,Cauchemez Simon¹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.

2. Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

3. Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.

4. Collège Doctoral, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France.

5. DREES, Ministère des Solidarités et de la Santé, Paris, France.

6. Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint-Maurice, France.

7. Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.

8. PACRI Unit, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France.

9. Epidemiology and Modelling of Antibiotic Evasion Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.

10. Anti-infective Evasion and Pharmacoepidemiology Team, CESP, Université Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, INSERM U1018, Montigny-le-Bretonneux, France.

11. Institut Pierre Louis d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Paris, France.

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic in France Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exacted a heavy toll in France during March and April 2020. Quarantine measures were effective in reducing transmission by 84%, and some relaxation of social isolation was expected in May. Salje et al. fit transmission models for the epidemic in France to hospital admissions. The authors forecast that 2.9 million people will have been infected by 11 May, representing 4.4% of the population—a value inadequate for herd immunity. Daily critical care hospitalizations should reduce from several hundreds to tens of cases, but control will remain a delicate balancing act. Any relaxation of lockdown in France will have to be carefully controlled and monitored to avoid undermining more optimistic forecasts. Science , this issue p. 208

Funder

H2020 European Research Council

ANR

INCEPTION

Santé Publique France

European Union RECOVER

University of Cambridge COVID-19 Rapid Response Grant

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference32 articles.