The Relationship between Trade Openness and Inflation in Turkey

Abstract

Both in Turkey and in the world in 1980 was a year of major structural transformations. Globalization has been accelerated in this time and countries have implemented some liberal policies for opening borders to foreign capital. Economies began to be led by export-oriented industrialization and liberalization policies after 1980 and these policies continue since then. Turkey is one of these countries that began liberalization after 1980. While decreasing trade barriers exerts a downward pressure on prices trade liberalization represents a structural break. This study aims to examine the relationship between trade openness and inflation over the period 1980-2011 for Turkey by using OLS method. The proportion of foreign trade volume (exports plus imports) to GDP and real exchange rates are used as measures of trade openness besides inflation rate. As a result of the study, it has been determined that there was a negative correlation between trade openness and inflation rate for the dedicated years in Turkey. The effects of crisis and election years in Turkey have been also tested and found statistically insignificant.