Predicting Hurricane Trajectories Using a Recurrent Neural Network

Author:

Alemany Sheila,Beltran Jonathan,Perez Adrian,Ganzfried Sam

Abstract

Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their trajectory paths is critical to reduce economic loss and save human lives. Given the complexity and nonlinearity of weather data, a recurrent neural network (RNN) could be beneficial in modeling hurricane behavior. We propose the application of a fully connected RNN to predict the trajectory of hurricanes. We employed the RNN over a fine grid to reduce typical truncation errors. We utilized their latitude, longitude, wind speed, and pressure publicly provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to predict the trajectory of a hurricane at 6-hour intervals. Results show that this proposed technique is competitive to methods currently employed by the NHC and can predict up to approximately 120 hours of hurricane path.

Publisher

Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI)

Subject

General Medicine

Cited by 57 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3