Macroeconomic Determinants of External Debt Accumulation in Ethiopia: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Abstract

This study attempts to explore the major macroeconomic determinants of external debt stock growth in Ethiopia prompted by a continuous increase in government external borrowing over the period 1981-2018. For this purpose, the study employed the ARDL bound testing approach and all the necessary time series diagnostic tests were conducted. The long run model estimation result revealed that per capita GDP growth has a positive and significant effect on the country’s external debt stock. The result also revealed that the budget deficit and political instability put a significant upward pressure on the external debt stock growth of the country both in the short run and long run. Consistent with some existing empirical evidence, the study revealed negative and significant influence of openness and infrastructure development on the external debt stock growth. Consequently, the government should embark on prudent borrowing to achieve structural transformation.