Decline of notified dengue infections in Indonesia in 2017: Discussion of the possible determinants

Abstract

This study was conducted to quantify the trend in dengue notifications in the country in 2017 and to explore the possible determinants. Annual nation-wide dengue notification data were obtained from the National Disease Surveillance of Ministry of Health of Indonesia. Annual incidence rate (IR) and case fatality rate (CFR) in 2017 and the previous years were quantified and compared. Correlations between annual larva free index (LFI), implementation coverage of integrated vector management (IVM), El Niño Southern Oscillation (Niño3.4), Dipole Mode Index (DMI), Zika virus seropositivity and the percent change in IR and CFR of dengue were examined. The change of dengue IR and CFRs were mapped. In 2017, dengue IR was declined by 71% (22.55 per 100,000 population) compared to 2016 (77.96 per 100,000 population) while the CFR was slightly reduced from 0.79% to 0.75%. Reduction in IR and CFR occurred in 94.1% and 70.1% out of 34 provinces, respectively. The trend of dengue IR seems to be influenced by Niño3.4 but there is no clear evidence that Niño3.4 is the main reason for dengue reduction in 2017. It is difficult to elucidate that the reduction of dengue in 2017 was associated with previous Zika outbreaks. In conclusion, there was a significant reduction on dengue notifications in Indonesia in 2017. Further investigation is needed to look at the role of climate on the decline of dengue IR at finer temporal scale. In addition, study on the role of cross-protective immunity generated by Zika infection on dengue incidence is also warranted.