The Days After COVID-19: A Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Epidemics and Pandemics on Long-Term Macro-Economic Performance

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the future of the global economies appears gloomy as policy, industry and academia stakeholders assess the immediate adverse effects. This research meta-analysis studies on the impact of epidemics and pandemics on the longer-term performance of national economies covering the past 30 years. The findings indicate that the impact of pandemics on economies for periods of over two years might move from the immediate adverse effects to small positive effects. Several moderators were found to affect this relationship, including socio-economic and methodological factors. The findings agree with a significant amount of existing literature and are in line with the neo-classic economic theories for a possible return to economic growth after a major economic shock. Nevertheless, issues of publication bias should also be taken into consideration.