İnşaat Maliyet Endeksi Tahmininde Holt-Winters Üstel Düzeltme Parametrelerinin PSO ve İleri Walk-Forward Cross-Validation ile Optimizasyonu

Author:

TÜZ EBESEK Özlem1ORCID,EBESEK Şafak2ORCID

Affiliation:

1. MERSİN ÜNİVERSİTESİ, MİMARLIK FAKÜLTESİ

2. TOROS ÜNİVERSİTESİ, GÜZEL SANATLAR FAKÜLTESİ, MİMARLIK BÖLÜMÜ

Abstract

This research aims to enhance the accuracy of Construction Cost Index (CCI) forecasting using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (ES) by optimizing its parameters, focusing on minimizing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for precise CCI forecasts. To reach this aim, The Holt-Winters model parameters are optimized through Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Walk-Forward Cross-Validation (WFCV). PSO, a metaheuristic optimization algorithm, is being applied to search for optimal values of the smoothing parameters (alpha, beta, and gamma) that determine the weightage of past observations, trends, and seasonality, respectively. WFCV is assessed the model's performance and ensures robustness. Reduced MAPEs of 22 for CCI forecasts and 2 for training data are the findings of the optimized Holt-Winters model. The obtained alpha, beta, and gamma values are 0.99, 0.77, and 0, respectively, highlighting the importance of while neglecting seasonality. Convergence graphs demonstrate the superiority of the optimization approach over conventional parameter values or random selections. By employing PSO and WFCV, the study efficiently fine-tunes the Holt-Winters model for precise CCI forecasting. Optimized parameter values enable data driven decision-making in construction project cost estimation and budget management. This research contributes a reliable and robust optimization methodology for CCI forecasting, supporting advancements in the field.

Publisher

Kent Akademisi

Subject

General Medicine

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3