Gut Microbiota Improves Prognostic Prediction in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients Alongside Immunological and Hematological Indicators

Abstract

The gut microbiota undergoes substantial changes in COVID-19 patients; yet, the utility of these alterations as prognostic biomarkers at the time of hospital admission, and its correlation with immunological and hematological parameters, remains unclear. The objective of this study is to investigate the gut microbiota's dynamic change in critically ill patients with COVID-19 and evaluate its predictive capability for clinical outcomes alongside immunological and hematological parameters. In this study, anal swabs were consecutively collected from 192 COVID-19 patients (583 samples) upon hospital admission for metagenome sequencing. Simultaneously, blood samples were obtained to measure the concentrations of 27 cytokines and chemokines, along with hematological and biochemical indicators. Our findings indicate a significant correlation between the composition and dynamics of gut microbiota with disease severity and mortality in COVID-19 patients. Recovered patients exhibited a higher abundance of Veillonella and denser interactions among gut commensal bacteria compared to deceased patients. Furthermore, the abundance of gut commensal bacteria exhibited a negative correlation with the concentration of proinflammatory cytokines and organ damage markers. The gut microbiota upon admission showed moderate prognostic prediction ability with an AUC of 0.78, which was less effective compared to predictions based on immunological and hematological parameters (AUC 0.80 and 0.88, respectively). Noteworthy, the integration of these three datasets yielded a higher predictive accuracy (AUC 0.93). Our findings suggest the gut microbiota as an informative biomarker for COVID-19 prognosis, augmenting existing immune and hematological indicators.