A Web-Based Application for Exploring Potential Changes in Design Peak Flow of US Urban Areas Driven by Land Cover Change

Abstract

Floods have become increasingly prominent in recent decades causing devastating effects on lives and livelihoods worldwide. Efficient tools to assess the drivers of floods, such as increasing urbanization, could help to minimize flood hazards. Urbanization increases the design peak flow (maximum potential surface water flow from a precipitation event with an average probability of occurring once in a specific recurrence interval), which is a key information needed for designing stormwater management infrastructures such as culverts and storm sewers. A web-based application was developed to explore the potential changes (1985 to 2020) in design peak flow of urban areas across the conterminous United States driven by land cover change. The results indicate a potential increase in design peak flow in urban areas up to 126.6% in 2020 compared to 1985. Of the total 3,535 study urban areas, about 80% (2,840) urban areas increased design peak flow, and about 19% (654) decreased design peak flow. A general pattern of increasing design peak flow was observed during 1985 to 2010, and decreasing pattern was observed during 2010 to 2020, primarily driven by respective increasing (decreasing) and decreasing (increasing) developed areas (croplands). The application provides crucial information by visualizing both spatial and temporal data that could be useful for decision-makers in developing and improving urban stormwater management plans and policies for efficient resource allocations and reducing flood risks.