Identification of shrinking cities in Poland using a multi-criterion indicator

Abstract

Urban shrinkage, characterised by long-term demographic, socio-economic and spatial changes, has been studied extensively, including via research into causes, typologies, and planning responses. However, while understanding and measuring urban shrinkage processes is crucial if policymakers are to respond adequately to cities’ challenges, multi-criterion studies on shrinkage trajectories are still required for the spatiotemporal complexity to be captured correctly. This study reviews methods by which urban shrinkage is studied and concludes with a selection of multi-criterion methods that offer more in-depth insight than population-based methods. Finally, a multicriteria analysis, adapted from Milbert (2015), is applied to measure urban shrinkage in Poland in the years 2006 to 2021. This incorporates six variables with a view to shrinking and growing cities being assessed and assigned to one of five categories. The research provides insights into Poland’s most recent urban shrinkage processes. Results show that, over the analysed period, urban shrinkage was a phenomenon that increased and intensified in Poland, affected a growing number of urban centres of medium size, and was to be noted on the peripheries of metropolitan areas. Such research outcomes contribute to a better understanding of urban shrinkage in Poland, provide a basis for further research, and inform policymakers as they seek to formulate more-targeted strategies to address the specific challenges that urban shrinkage raises.