Cumulative Detection Probability as a Basis for Pressure Vessel Inspection Intervals

Author:

Garic G.1

Affiliation:

1. Lockheed-Martin Stennis Operations, NASA John C. Stennis Space Center, SSC, MS 39529

Abstract

Abstract This work discusses use of the cumulative flaw detection probability as the basis for establishing pressure vessel inspection intervals. The method is based on the accumulated probability of detecting a flaw over several inspections. It explicitly incorporates a user decision as to the acceptable level of failure risk. A four-step approach is outlined including fracture mechanics flaw growth calculations with probabilistic treatment of detection probability. It is concluded that (a) inspection intervals based on the cumulative probability of detection provide significant advantages over traditional cycle-based methods, (b) pressure vessel recertification inspections should rely on high percentage inspections conducted on a relatively infrequent basis.

Publisher

ASME International

Subject

Mechanical Engineering,Mechanics of Materials,Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Reference20 articles.

1. Bargmann H. W. , 1986, “Pressure Vessel Integrity in the Presence of Defects: The Probabilistic Prediction in Spite of Scarce Data,” Nuclear Engineering and Design, Vol. 93, Elsevier, New York, NY, pp. 289–294.

2. Bloom, J. M., 1984, “Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics—A State of the Art Review,” Advances in Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics, ASME PVP-Vol. 92, New York, NY.

3. Broek, D., 1978, “Fracture Control by Periodic Inspection with Fixed Commulatative Probability of Detection—A Rational Use of Fracture mechanics Analysis,” Structural Failure, Product Liability and Technical Insurance, ed., Rossmanith, Interscience Enterprises, Ltd., pp. 238–258.

4. Broek, D., 1988, The Practical Use of Fracture Mechanics, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA.

5. Conley, M. J., et al., 1991, “Ammonia Vessel Integrity Program: Modern Approach,” Ammonia Plant Safety, AIChE, New York, NY.

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