Prediction of Surface Oil Rates for Volatile Oil and Gas Condensate Reservoirs Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Abstract

Abstract Allocated well production rates are crucial to evaluate the well performance. Test separators and flowmeters were replaced with choke formulas due to economic and technical issues special for high gas–oil ratio (GOR) reservoirs. This study implements Adaptive network-based fuzzy logic (ANFIS), and functional networks (FN) techniques to predict the oil rate through wellhead chokes. A set of data containing 1200 wells were obtained from actual oil fields in the Middle East. The data set included GOR, upstream and downstream pressure, choke size, and actual oil and gas rates based on the well test. GOR varied from 1000 to 9265 scf/stb, while oil rates ranged between 1156 and 7982 stb/d. Around 650 wells were flowing under critical flow conditions, while the rest were subcritical. Seventy percent of the data were used to train the artificial intelligence (AI) models, while thirty percent of the data were used to test and validate these models. The developed AI models were then compared against the previous formulas. For subcritical flow conditions, rate prediction was correlated to both upstream and downstream pressures, while at critical flow conditions, changes in the downstream pressure did not affect the prediction of the production rates. For each AI method, two models were developed for subcritical flow and critical flow conditions. The average absolute percent error (AAPE) in the case of subcritical flow for ANFIS and FN were 0.88, and 1.01%, respectively. While in the case of critical flow, the AAPE values were 1.07, and 1.3% for ANFIS and FN models, respectively. All developed AI models outperform the published formulas, where the AAPE values for published formulas were higher than 34%. The results from this study will greatly assist petroleum engineers to predict the oil and gas rates based on available data from wellhead chokes in real-time with no need for additional operational costs or field intervention.