A Finite Element Analysis-Unascertained Measure Theory-Based Hybrid Approach to Safety Assessment for Pipelines Subject to Landslide Disasters

Abstract

Abstract Pipeline safety faces a prevalent threat in mountainous areas due to landslides. The advent of landslides introduces the risk of pipeline leaks or ruptures, posing a significant threat to the environment, with the potential for casualties. Throughout the occurrence of landslides, uncertainties abound, yet few studies have addressed the incorporation of uncertainties in assessing pipeline safety. This work proposes a novel hybrid approach to the safety assessment for pipelines under landslides. The use of finite element analysis (FEA) models the pipeline under the action of landslides. The numerical outcomes, combined with unascertained measure theory (UMT), develop a multi-indicator unascertained measure (UM) matrix. Random forest (RF) algorithm is employed to determine the weight of indicators in the matrix. The hybrid application of set pair theory and the UM evaluation vector finally determine the pipeline safety degree and level. The proposed methodology has been well-validated through a case study on an in-service pipeline. The results indicate that the case pipeline safety degree is 2.777, 2.132, 3.132, 3.904, and 2.240, respectively. The corresponding safety level is III, II, III, IV, and II, respectively, which is consistent with the pipeline's actual condition. Different from the conventional safety assessment approach, the proposed methodology demonstrates the enhanced effectiveness, facilitating a more precise evaluation of the pipeline's safety condition.