Statistical Modeling of Creep Rupture Data

Author:

Davies R. B.1,Hales R.2,Harman J. C.1,Holdsworth S. R.3

Affiliation:

1. Centre for Applied Statistics, Fylde College, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YF, U.K.

2. Nuclear Electric Ltd., Barnwood GL4 3RS, U.K.

3. GEC ALSTHOM Large Steam Turbines, Rugby CV21 2NH, U.K.

Abstract

A flexible statistical modeling framework for the analysis of creep rupture data is proposed, which offers an improvement on traditional methods of deriving creep rupture strength values and confidence limits. The paper reviews a family of models that can be used to represent the trend relationship between failure times about the trend line, and examines the reliability of extrapolations. Areas of statistical research which would lead to model improvement are discussed, such as variance heterogeneity, left censoring and allowance for the cluster (cast) structure of the data.

Publisher

ASME International

Subject

Mechanical Engineering,Mechanics of Materials,Condensed Matter Physics,General Materials Science

Reference25 articles.

1. Barraclough, D. R., and Logsdon, J. R., 1984, “The Statistical Analysis of Creep Data for Low Alloy Steels,” CEGB Report NWR/SSD/84/0069/R.

2. Barraclough, D. R., and Logsdon, J. R., 1987, “The Composition Improvement Factor—A Life Extension Factor Describing Compositional Trends Within an Alloy Grade,” Proc. Conf. on Refurbishment and Life Extension of Steam Plant, Inst. Mech. Eng., London, pp. 309–314.

3. Barraclough, D. R., and Logsdon, J. R., 1992, “A Revised Method for the Analysis of Stress Rupture Data,” Nuclear Electric Report TD/SEB/REP/1664/92.

4. BSI PD6525: Part 1; 1990, “Elevated Temperature Properties for Steels for Pressure Purposes,” Part 1: “Stress Rupture Properties,” British Standards Institution.

5. BSI PD6605: 1998, “Guidance on Methodology for Assessment of Stress-Rupture Data,” British Standards Institution.

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