Novel Assessment and Classification of Monthly Average Daily Global Solar Radiation Models Through a Figure of Merit Called Irradiation Time Equivalence: Analysis of 70 Regression Models Based on Air Temperature and Sunshine Hours Predictors

Abstract

Abstract Irradiation time equivalence pioneers the classification of models that predict monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface based on their double cross-validation performances. By exploiting indigenous irradiation data, novel irradiation-based models can be created and used to classify prediction models, thereby facilitating a deeper understanding of model performance beyond routine summary statistics. The concept was demonstrated by formulating novel 1-hour and 2-hour irradiation-based models to predict monthly average daily global horizontal irradiation. Double cross-validations of the two irradiation-based models and 70 existing regression models were performed using a pair of 5-year subsets. The 70 models used the measured meteorological predictors of air temperature and sunshine hours, either alone or combined. The irradiation time equivalence of a model evaluated under double cross-validation has been defined as the minimum number of hours of measured irradiation needed to predict the monthly average daily irradiation in an average year, with a root mean square error less than or equal to that of the model. Despite their intracompetitiveness, all 44 temperature-based models had an irradiation time equivalence of 1 h, while the remaining 26 models that contained the sunshine-hours predictor were classified with a higher-performance rank of 2 h. An irradiation time equivalence scale extending to 13 h was also developed to cater to the classification of higher-performance models. This fresh perspective on model performance directs future investigations toward determining whether prediction models exhibit global classification constancy.