Target Reliability Levels for Design and Assessment of Onshore Natural Gas Pipelines

Abstract

This paper proposes a set of reliability targets that can be used in the design and assessment of onshore natural gas pipelines. The targets were developed as part of a PRCI-sponsored project that aims to establish reliability-based methods as a viable alternative for pipeline design and assessment. The proposed targets are calibrated to meet risk levels that are considered widely acceptable. The proposed criteria are based on a detailed consideration of both societal and individual risk criteria. Two societal risk criteria were considered; the first based on a fixed expectation of the number of fatalities and the second based on a risk aversion function as characterized by an F/N relationship. Societal risk criteria were calibrated to match or exceed the average safety levels implied by current codes. Individual risk criteria were based on published tolerable levels. The target reliability levels corresponding to the three criteria are presented and a recommended set of targets is presented.