Effects of Flaw Sizing Errors on the Reliability of Vessels and Piping

Abstract

This paper describes probabilistic fracture mechanics calculations that simulate fatigue crack growth, flaw detection, flaw sizing accuracy, and the impacts of flaw acceptance criteria. The numerical implementation of the model is based on a Latin hypercube approach. Calculations have been performed for a range of parameters. For representative values of flaw detection probability, flaw sizing errors, and flaw acceptance criteria, detection capability is the most limiting factor with regard to the ability of the inservice inspections to reduce leak probabilities. However, gross sizing errors or significant relaxations of current flaw acceptance standards could negate the benefits of outstanding probability of detection capabilities.