Development of an Approach Towards Mission-Based Design of Arctic Maritime Transport Systems

Abstract

This paper describes an approach that utilizes a discrete event simulation tool and ice data from a numerical ice prediction model to enable mission-based design of arctic maritime transport systems consisting of a single or multiple arctic cargo ships. For a specific vessel design and route, the developed approach makes it possible to simulate how the transit time varies over time due to both varying ice conditions and stochastic factors such as the weather. Thus, for a given transport scenario (route, transport demand, and period of time), the approach can be used to determine a suitable vessel capacity, propulsion power, and ice class. When necessary, the approach can be used to analyze and design more complex transport system consisting of multiple vessels and routes. A case study is carried out to demonstrate how the approach could be applied in practice. The outcome of the case study indicates that the approach generates realistic figures, and that it is flexible enough to make it possible to vary the number of included parameters and variables as needed.