Probabilistic Analysis of LIST Data for the Estimation of Extreme Design Loads for Wind Turbine Components*†-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Probabilistic Analysis of LIST Data for the Estimation of Extreme Design Loads for Wind Turbine Components*†

Published:2003-11-01 Issue:4 Volume:125 Page:531-540
ISSN:0199-6231
Container-title:Journal of Solar Energy Engineering
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Pandey M. D.¹,Sutherland H. J.²

Affiliation:

1. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1 Canada

2. Wind Energy Technology Department, Sandia National Laboratories,(‡) Albuquerque, NM 87185-0708 USA

Abstract

The robust estimation of wind turbine design loads for service lifetimes of 30 to 50 years that are based on limited field measurements is a challenging problem. Estimating the long-term load distribution involves the integration of conditional distributions of extreme loads over the mean wind speed and turbulence intensity distributions. However, the accuracy of the statistical extrapolation can be sensitive to both model and sampling errors. Using measured inflow and structural data from the Long Term Inflow and Structural Test (LIST) program, this paper presents a comparative assessment of extreme loads using three distributions: namely, the Gumbel, Weibull and Generalized Extreme Value distributions. The paper uses L-moments, in place of traditional product moments, with the purpose of reducing the sampling error. The paper discusses the effects of modeling and sampling errors and highlights the practical limitations of extreme value theory.

Publisher

ASME International

Subject

Energy Engineering and Power Technology,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

Link

http://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/solarenergyengineering/article-pdf/125/4/531/5571272/531_1.pdf

Reference14 articles.

1. Ronold, K. O., Wedel-Heinen, J., and Christensen, C. J., 1999, “Reliability-Based Fatigue Design of Wind Turbine Rotors,” Eng. Struct., 21, pp. 1101–1114.

2. Fitzwater, L. M., and Winterstein, S. R., 2001, “Predicting Design Wind Turbine Loads from Limited Data: Comparing Random Process and Random Peak Model,” 2001 ASME Wind Energy Symposium, AIAA/ASME, pp. 265–272.

3. Moriarty, P. J., Holley, W. E., and Butterfield, S., 2002, “Effect of Turbulence Variation on Extreme Loads Prediction for Wind Turbines,” 2002 ASME Wind Energy Symposium, AIAA/ASME, pp. 278–287.

4. Sutherland, H. J., P. L. Jones, and B. Neal, 2001, “The Long-Term Inflow and Structural Test Program,” 2001 ASME Wind Energy Symposium, AIAA/ASME, pp. 162–172.

5. Hosking, J. R. M. , 1990, “L-Moments Analysis and Estimation of Distributions Using Linear Combination of Order Statistics,” J. of the Royal Statistical Society 52, pp. 105–124.

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