Projections of wind power density in Pakistan and adjacent regions

Abstract

This work focuses on the wind energy in Pakistan projected by 3 regional climate models (RCMs), namely COSMO-CLM, REMO and RegCM4, nested in different global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Five time-slices (1995-2014, 2020-�2039, 2040-2059, 2060-2079 and 2080-2099) and 2 scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) were analyzed. Wind energy studies are based on 2 variables: wind intensity and wind power density (WPD). WPD is a measure of the wind energy produced by turbines installed above the surface, currently at 100 m height. Before computing WPD, a simple bias correction was applied to the model data. Considering all of Pakistan, wind intensity was higher in June, July and August due to the influence of the active phase of the monsoon. In terms of subdomains, higher intense winds were reported in the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh. For the same regions and season, the wind intensity is projected to increase (by ~1-1.5 m s-1), which leads to an increase in WPD of >20% in Bolachistan and 40% in Sindh under RCP8.5. We also project an increase in WPD in the eastern part of the country, but it will not be enough for wind energy generation. Our research findings can be useful for entrepreneur investors in wind energy.