Use of CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton to Determine the Agronomic and Economic Value of Irrigation to Upland Cotton Production in North and South Carolina

Abstract

Abstract. Although prior research has shown that irrigation can increase cotton fiber yields in coastal plain soils of the Carolinas, only 2.7% of North Carolina’s and 7.8% of South Carolina’s planted hectares are irrigated, compared to 39% nationally. Little research has addressed the impact of compacted subsurface soil layers on the value of irrigation. Economic analysis of irrigation is also difficult due to the lack of long-term irrigation data for the region. The objectives of this study were to adapt the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton simulation model to production conditions in the coastal plain of the Carolinas and use it to evaluate both the agronomic and economic value of irrigation to upland cotton production. Field data collected near Lewiston-Woodville, North Carolina, in 2015-2016 were used in model calibration and validation. Soil profiles were established using historical weather and cotton yield data for 16 cotton-producing counties in North and South Carolina from 1979 to 2015. Soil profiles were fit both with and without a root-restrictive (compacted) layer for each county. To evaluate the value of irrigation for these counties, simulations were conducted using ten irrigation levels, including non-irrigated, triggered when plant-available water (PAW) reached a maximum allowable depletion of 50%. The economic analysis made use of Cotton Incorporated’s Cotton Irrigation Decision Aid to determine the economic feasibility of irrigation using investment analysis tools such as cash flow, payback period, and net present value (NPV). Predicted agronomic and economic responses to irrigation were strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall. Fiber yield of non-irrigated cotton was reduced by more than 10% of fully irrigated cotton yield in more than 70% of the site-years simulated. This study suggests that irrigation is a feasible investment for cotton producers in North and South Carolina, as positive average cash flows and NPVs were observed over all counties and soils evaluated. Keywords: Cotton, CROPGRO, Crop simulation model, Economic analysis, Irrigation, Water use efficiency, Yield loss.