Macroeconomic Analysis of Russian Economy in 2018

Abstract

The paper provides a macroeconomic analysis of the Russian economy in 2018 based on standard macroeconomic analysis methods and relying on the results of authors’ own econometric model. It is demonstrated that the main driver of the country’s economic growth was the growing export volume primarily caused by increased export prices, as well as ruble depreciation. However, the rates of Russian economic growth stayed lower than the global economic rates. Production growth, macroeconomic stability, easing monetary policy and country’s conservative fiscal policy enhanced the positive balance of payments and achieved budget surplus. Nevertheless, growth rates stay quite low due to insufficient investment volume and total productivity stagnation. The latter is caused, among other reasons, by lack of foreign investment and poor funding of research and development. Development of the Russian digital economy along with economic reforms could solve these problems. Recent years saw quick growth of Russia’s digital economy, including growing export of ICT products. However, the share of digital economy in Russian GDP is still lower than that of developed countries.