Using a Combination of Matrix Approach to Robustness Analysis (MARA) and Fuzzy DEMATEL-Based ANP (FDANP) to Choose the Best Decision

Abstract

In today's world, selecting a suitable, reasonable option is challenging for any decision-maker. Where does this problem arise from? According to the decision-making literature, complexity “multiple criteria and interrelationship among them” and uncertainty “the vagueness of judgments and future uncertainty” have made decision-making one of the most significant problems for people. Though multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods can help decision-makers select the best alternative among multiple criteria and consider their interrelationships, they do not deal with uncertainty. Fuzzy set theory handles uncertainty arising from the vagueness of human thoughts and language in making decisions. Still, the MCDM or FMCDM techniques fail to formulate the probable futures since they use the present information and judgments to collect the data, while in the real world, choosing a method that can deal with the uncertain environment and reduce its impact on outcomes will be effective. Moreover, soft OR methods, such as robustness analysis, strategic choice approach, etc., can deal with future uncertainty but not complexity. Thus, we will use a combination of the Matrix Approach to Robustness Analysis (MARA) and Fuzzy DEMATEL-based ANP (FDANP) to address the weakness mentioned above. This hybrid method has two significant advantages: it can (i) consider numerous scenarios, criteria, and alternatives as well as the interdependency among criteria to address the complexity aspect, and (ii) examine the option performance among the different possible futures and the fuzzy nature of the problem owner's judgments to address the uncertainty aspect. This method is applied to a case related to starting a new business in Iran. The results show that by concerning the environmental situations and the possible future of Iran, education service is the most robust business to start.