Evidencing population change for sustainable communities

Abstract

Current debates around the ability of official statistics to reflect actual population size and demographics, their lag in release and the geographical scale at which they are made available have prompted an investigation into a novel approach to population modelling using administrative data. This paper provides an insight into the population models for lower super output area level estimates developed for ten boroughs within the London Thames Gateway based on council tax, child benefit and schools census data. The multi-stage multiple regression models are initially constructed using 2001 data and tested against official statistics. The estimates are then moved forward with successive annual data sets to provide an understanding of year-on-year population change. This approach is not meant to displace official statistics but to provide another view through a different route; they can be set alongside each other for evidential decision support in social infrastructure planning. This approach is now being applied, for example, by a number of primary care trusts in growth areas in London and the south Midlands in order to inform decisions on health infrastructure planning.