Port and inland waterway design and operation in the face of climate change uncertainty

Abstract

Climate change is a key business risk for ports and inland waterways and, therefore, a key consideration for the design and operation of this infrastructure. While risk and vulnerability are typically assessed using historical information, possible future climates now also need to be considered, using quantitative climate datasets whenever possible. The current challenge is the range of availability – and levels of uncertainty – for specific parameters that are important to ports and inland waterways. When quantitative information is available, a scenario-based approach can be used to identify an appropriate range of projections for assessing risks and designing structures. Notwithstanding the availability of quantitative data, however, adaptive solutions should be favoured. This is especially important where residual uncertainty is high and/or where significant or complex investments are involved. The development of adaptation pathways enables the implementation of phased responses as climate-related hazards, such as pluvial flooding or sea-level rise, evolve. The adaptation pathway approach also reduces the risk of maladaptation associated with the assumption of a deterministic future condition for the design life of the asset or operation.