A dynamic system approach to risk analysis for megaproject delivery

Abstract

This paper describes a dynamic systems approach to quantitative risk assessment and simulation in megaprojects with regard to social, technical, economic, environmental and political issues relating to sustainability at the construction stage. A literature review was conducted to justify the need for such a dynamic systems approach that originally integrates the functions of two sophisticated quantitative methods – namely, the analytic network process and system dynamics – for an advanced solution to tackle the problems of overruns on budget and schedule at the construction stage in megaproject delivery. The new dynamic systems approach, called SDANP, is described in detail with a theoretical framework and its technical procedure for application. This paper finally provides an experimental case study on the Edinburgh Tram Network project in Scotland to demonstrate the usefulness of the SDANP method, and it also discusses its implementation to support risk management in megaproject delivery towards sustainability.