Estimating travel time in the Helsinki region utilising sequential Bayesian inference

Abstract

This paper explores application of Bayesian inference (BI) to dynamic travel time estimation in the Helsinki region. Accurate travel time prediction is crucial in a wide range of fields, including departure time and routing. Limited real-time data challenge modelling accuracy. To address this, this paper utilises BI, particularly sequential Bayesian inference (SBI) for evolving observed values. Incorporating 2018 real-time data and 2015 information as prior knowledge, travel time distribution will be updated. Validation yields a 4.0% mean absolute error between the updated 2018 distribution and actual travel time. Also, using the 2015 posterior distribution as prior by way of SBI yields a 4.6% mean absolute error. Results highlight that SBI is an effective tool for updating distributions. This paper underscores potential of BI in addressing data scarcity and enhancing accuracy of transportation models. By supplying precise travel time estimates, this approach benefits congestion relief and travel planning. With evolving travel time data, BI promises to advance transportation modelling.