Measuring Covid-19 effect on rail passenger flow with region-based trip generation models

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic affected the lives of all humans in their daily routines, and the transportation sector became one of the most affected services worldwide. Different instruments are used to enable the effect of the pandemic on transportation to be measured. In this study, trip generation modelling is performed first to understand what factors trigger trip making and how they affect rail passenger flow (RPF) in general; the aim is to measure the loss in RPF due to the Covid-19 pandemic using these trip generation models. Daily RPF data from station to station in Türkiye during the years 2011–2019 are used for the trip generation models and 2016 rail passenger survey data are used for understanding the geographical characteristics of the flow. It is seen that instead of one model covering the whole country, it is more suitable to form different models for specific regions. Using region-based trip generation models, the Covid-19 effect on RPF on the mainlines was measured for the year 2020. Modelled values are anticipated numbers for the no-pandemic condition; therefore, by comparing the modelled and observed data, it is possible to understand how Covid-19 affected the traffic.