Plausible megathrust tsunamis in the eastern Mediterranean Sea

Abstract

Tsunamis have occurred at rates of about one to two per century in the Mediterranean Sea, on average, over the past 2000 years. However, most of these events have been of small amplitude and quantification of tsunami hazards in the eastern Mediterranean Sea remains difficult. Simulations were performed for a series of plausible Mw ≥ 8 seismic events originating along the Hellenic subduction zone and NW Cyprian Arc. Their locations and source characteristics represent events that are similar to the largest historical events, including the AD 365 and AD 1303 events, and in consideration of potential future events. The hydrodynamic simulations used the numerical model are known as the method of splitting tsunami (Most). Reported results include simulated wave amplitudes in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, specifically in the western Nile Delta region near the Rosetta promontory and Egypt's largest coastal city, Alexandria.