Briefing: Stocktaking global warming: the outcomes of the 2023 Dubai Climate Summit (COP28)

Abstract

This article reviews outcomes of the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP28) held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates in late 2023. In particular, it considered the first Global Stocktake (GST) of actions taken by signatory nations to the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The GST examined the potential impact of bottom-up national pledges on greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation required to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the twenty-first century. The achievements at COP28 were mixed, and disappointed many from the climate-vulnerable states at high risk from extreme weather events and rising sea levels. There is a significant GHG emissions gap between that needed to ‘keep 1.5°C alive’ and climate actions identified in the GST. Nonetheless, the parties agreed to ‘transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems’ in order to reach net zero GHG emissions (i.e. carbon neutrality) by 2050, and to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. This assessment sets out the background to what needs to be achieved at future annual COP summits, including the next GST at COP30 to be held in the Brazilian city of Belém later in 2025.