A Low Carbon Pathway for the Turkish Electricity Generation Sector

Abstract

The aim of this article is to analyze the decarbonization options of Türkiye's electricity generation sector. Türkiye is an emerging economy, so its population, economic activities and overall welfare have been increasing. However, economic and social development result in rising greenhouse gases, particularly CO2 emissions. Türkiye's emissions are required to be mitigated. Firstly, the main drivers (GDP, population, energy, and carbon intensity of primary energy sources, etc.) CO2 emissions of electricity are investigated between 2008 and 2020. The method of this query is based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI). Secondly, Türkiye's climate policy on the decarbonization of the electricity sector is analyzed. To that, supply and demand projections of electricity are conducted. After these projections are completed, decarbonization policy options are assessed in the LEAP Model (Low Emissions Analysis Platform). The reduction potential for CO2 emissions and the costs will be calculated according to the policy options. The projections will be extended by 2053 because Türkiye has declared to net zero emissions target by 2053. The electricity sector will have a significant emissions reduction and decarbonization potential, so its contribution to the overall net zero emissions target is crucial for Türkiye's long-term low emissions development strategy.