Prospective longitudinal research on the development of offending

Abstract

This article reviews prospective longitudinal surveys of offending and their advantages and problems. It summarizes knowledge about criminal careers based on official records and self-reports. It documents major individual, family, socio-economic and neighbourhood risk factors, and reviews knowledge about intergenerational transmission, cross-national comparisons and protective factors. It also discusses research on the effects of life events on the course of development of offending. New prospective longitudinal surveys are recommended, with frequent assessments, and comparisons of criminal career features according to official records and self-reports. These surveys would make it possible to compare changes within individuals in risk factors and life events with later changes within individuals in offending.