Demography as Destiny: Explaining the Turnover of Alternatively Certified Mathematics Teachers in Hard-to-Staff Schools

Abstract

Background: To stem the tide of teacher turnover and prevent shortages, teacher turnover interventions and policies often focus on new and novice teachers because evidence suggests that teacher turnover is particularly high among these teachers. In addition, researchers continue to investigate the root causes of the high teacher turnover observed in many low-income, high-minority schools and whether this is due more to school demographics or poor working conditions. Purpose: This article examines New York City Teaching Fellows (NYCTF) teachers’ risk of leaving their first school in their first 9 years. It both describes the patterns in leaving and examines how school demographics and school climate predict these leaving patterns. Participants: The study follows 608 teachers: two cohorts of secondary mathematics NYCTF teachers who entered the classroom in New York City in 2006 or 2007. Research Design: This is a quantitative study of survey and retention data that were collected as part of a longitudinal research project on NYCTF mathematics teachers. Data Analysis: We use an event history analysis (including a life table and hazard function graphs) to describe patterns in teachers’ timing of leaving their first school. We also use a discrete time hazard model to estimate the relative relationships between the predictors of interest (school demographics and school climate) and teacher turnover. Results: The findings from this study provide evidence against the general hypothesis in the field that teachers leave their first schools at the highest rate during their first 1 to 3 years. Second, we also found that the turnover of alternatively certified teachers who began in low-income, high-minority urban schools was driven by both student demographics and school climate conditions, including teacher collegiality and student behavior. Third, we found evidence to support our hypothesis that teachers’ individual perceptions of their school environment are stronger drivers of their turnover compared with the perceptions of their colleagues. Conclusion: The results from this study add to our understanding about the timing of teacher turnover among secondary mathematics NYCTF teachers, illustrating that teacher turnover may remain higher later in beginning teachers’ careers than currently assumed. This suggests that teachers in Years 3 to 5 in their careers may be good targets for supports. Our findings support the theory that improving school climate can help retain teachers but also provide a cautionary tale for a complete focus on school climate; stemming teacher turnover may require addressing larger economic forces (e.g., the global trend toward temporary work) and more insidious social forces, such as structural racism and inequality.