Co-producing uncertainty in public science: The case of genomic selection in forestry

Abstract

Co-production can inform analysis and communication of the uncertainties associated with novel forms of science and technology. Genomic selection—a relatively novel management tool consisting of predictive modeling based on associations between genetic and phenotypic data—holds many unknowns, particularly when used as a climate adaptation strategy. Approaching genomic selection as an example of public science, we examined beliefs about uncertainty and public engagement in a community of forest research professionals. Findings show broad-ranging approaches to uncertainty, alongside a prevalence of deficit accounts of public engagement. Even with broad acknowledgment of a range of uncertainties, forestry experts nonetheless relied on statistical, quantitative methods to manage uncertainties, in ways that overshadowed discussions about ignorance, indeterminacy, and ambiguity. Social scientists can enhance the communication of uncertainty in public science by making apparent expert-based assumptions about knowledge and intended audiences.